Analysis and modelling of value added tax revenues on imports: Some issues of application in Ukraine

Mykhayilo Luchko, I. Drozd, K. Plutytska, R. Ruska, I. Vovk


The aim of the article is to study the issues of analysis, modeling with the purpose of forecasting the payment of value added tax (VAT) on goods, works and services imported as imports into the customs territory of Ukraine. The reliability and validity of the planned VAT rate depend on the assessment of the status, forecast, seasonality and trends of economic and social development. The purpose of the work is to analyze and systematize the methodology for modeling VAT revenues from imports, justify the use of the econometric method and develop an adequate ARIMA model. It application is possible in the long term as well as smaller periods of time, which is relevant for monitoring and control of tax revenues. The study revealed the main factors influencing the application of the ARIMA model when modeling VAT revenues from imports. The resulting regression model in STATISTICA linked the variables with an accurate approximation.


Forecasting; Value Added Tax; Tax Revenue; ARIMA Modelling; Regression

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