Modelación de los impactos del Cambio Climático sobre los flujos y almacenamientos en una cuenca de alta montaña
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.4995/ia.2018.8931Palabras clave:
TETIS, CMIP5, Escenarios climáticos, Crecidas extraordinarias, InundacionesResumen
La evaluación de los impactos del Cambio Climático en un sistema de alta montaña es un objetivo primordial en la planificación y prevención de situaciones de riesgo como son las crecidas y las inundaciones. Sin embargo, evaluar con exactitud los impactos en los principales flujos y almacenamientos que intervienen en dicho sistema no es una tarea sencilla. Por lo cual, el objetivo de este estudio ha sido implementar el modelo hidrológico TETIS como herramienta de análisis en la evaluación de los impactos del Cambio Climático a escala de celda en una cuenca. Este modelo se ha calibrado automáticamente empleando el algoritmo de optimización Shuffled Complex Evolution. En las proyecciones futuras de las variables de precipitación y temperatura usadas por el modelo TETIS, se han usado los multimodelos climáticos del Coupled Model Intercomparison Project y los escenarios del Panel Intergubernamental del Cambio Climático. Los resultados obtenidos han mostrado que existe una modificación en la dinámica del sistema presentando un mayor riesgo por avenidas máximas extraordinarias e inundaciones.
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