Estimación a corto plazo de la temperatura del agua. Aplicación en sistemas de producción en medio acuático

Juan Carlos Gutiérrez Estrada

Spain

Universidad de Huelva

Emiliano de Pedro Sanz

Spain

Universidad de Córdoba

Rafael López Luque

Spain

Universidad de Córdoba

Inmaculada Pulido Calvo

Spain

Universidad de Huelva

Enviado: 06-05-2014

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Aceptado:

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Publicado: 31-03-2005

DOI: https://doi.org/10.4995/ia.2005.2553
Datos de financiación

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Palabras clave:

Regresión múltiple, Análisis de series temporales, Modelos ARIMA, Temperatura, Acuicultura

Agencias de apoyo:

Esta investigación no contó con financiación

Resumen:

El control y la predicción de parámetros físico-químicos del agua en tanques de cultivo de plantas de producción en medio acuático es un aspecto fundamental del buen funcionamiento de este tipo de instalaciones. En este trabajo se propone la estimación de la temperatura del agua en las próximas 24 horas en una planta de producción de anguilas europeas de carácter intensivo mediante regresiones múltiples y modelos univariantes de series temporales (modelos de suavizado y ARIMA). Se cuenta con datos de las temperaturas diarias en distintas series de tanques correspondientes a los años 1997 al 2001. Los modelos se calibran considerando exclusivamente la relación de los datos presentes y pasados de la temperatura, asumiéndose de esta forma que la variabilidad de otros factores que pueden influir en este parámetro está contenida en la propia serie de datos. Las mejores validaciones proporcionan niveles de varianza explicada en la mayor parte de los casos superiores al 95% y errores en la predicción inferiores a 1º C.
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