MERLIN: Una nueva herramienta para la predicción del riesgo de inundaciones en la demarcación hidrográfica Galicia-Costa

Ignacio Fraga, Luis Cea, Jerónimo Puertas, Gonzalo Mosqueira, Belén Quinteiro, Sonia Botana, Laura Fernández, Santiago Salsón, Guillermo Fernández-García, Juan Taboada

Resumen

Este artículo presenta MERLIN, una nueva herramienta para estimar el riesgo de inundaciones a partir de predicciones de caudales y calados en Áreas de Riesgo Potencial Significativo de Inundaciones (ARPSIS) de la demarcación hidrográfica Galicia-Costa. El sistema MERLIN opera en dos fases. Durante una primera fase de inicialización, modelos hidrológicos de las cuencas incluidas en el sistema asimilan datos hidro-meteorológicos para caracterizar la capacidad de infiltración del terreno. Durante la fase de predicción, los modelos hidrológicos previamente inicializados se alimentan con predicciones meteorológicas para determinar los caudales esperados durante los próximos días. Las predicciones de caudal alimentan a modelos hidráulicos de las ARPSIS que determinan los calados y la extensión de zonas inundadas. El funcionamiento de MERLIN se evaluó en 4 cuencas piloto a partir de los caudales registrados durante los temporales del invierno del 2019-2020, mostrando una buena capacidad de predecir los valores posteriormente observados.


Palabras clave

inundación, predicción, gestión de riesgo de inundación.

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Referencias

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