Climate change and food security to 2030: a global economy-wide perspective
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.7201/earn.2011.01.02Keywords:
Climate change, Crop and labor productivity growth, Global economy-wide model projectionsAbstract
The effects of climate change on agriculture raise major food security concerns. We use a global economy-wide model to assess the effects on farm product prices of expected yield changes. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results entail consequences for international agricultural prices, national food consumption, self sufficiency, net farm income and economic welfare.Downloads
References
Alston, J.M., Babcock, B.A. and Pardey, P.G. (Eds.) (2010). The shifting patterns of agricultural production and productivity worldwide. The Midwest Agribusiness Trade Research and Information Center, Iowa State University, Ames.
Anderson, K. (2009). “Distorted agricultural incentives and economic development: Asia’s experience”. The World Economy, 32(3): 351-84.
Anderson, K., Dimaranan, B., Hertel, T. and Martin, W. (1997). “Economic growth and policy reforms in the APEC region: Trade and welfare implications by 2005”. Asia-Pacific Economic Review, 3(1): 1-18.
Anderson, K., Kurzweil, M., Martin, W., Sandri, D. and Valenzuela, E. (2008). “Measuring distortions to agricultural incentives, revisited”. World Trade Review, 7(4): 1-30.
Anderson, K. and Valenzuela, E. (2008). Estimates of global distortions to agricultural incentives, 1955 to 2007. World Bank, Washington DC, October, accessible at www.worldbank.org/agdistortions.
Armington, P. (1969). “A theory of demand for products distinguished by place of production”. IMF Staff Papers, 16: 159-78.
BP (2010). BP Statistical Review of World Energy. British Petroleum, London.
Calzadilla, A., Rehdanz, K., Betts, R., Falloon, P., Wiltshire, A. and Tol, R.S.J. (2010). “Climate change impacts on global agriculture”. Paper presented at the 13th Global Economic Analysis conference, Penang, 9-11 June.
Cline, W.R. (2007). Global warming and agriculture: Impact assessment by country. Centre for Global Development and Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington DC.
Deininger, K. and Byerlee, D. (2011). Rising global interest in farmland: Can it yield sustainable and equitable benefits?. World Bank, Washington DC.
Duval, R. and de la Maisonneuve, C. (2009). “Long-term GDP growth framework and scenarios for the world economy”. Annex 1 in The Economics of Climate Change Mitigation: Policies and Options for Global Action Beyond 201. OECD, Paris.
Fouré, J., Benassy-Quéré, A. and Fontagné, L. (2010). The world economy in 2050: A tentative picture. Working Paper No. 2010-27, CEPII, Paris, December (www.cepii.org.fr).
Garnaut, R. (2008). The Garnaut Climate Change Review. Cambridge University Press, Melbourne.
Golub, A., Hertel, T.W., Lee, H., Rose, S. and Sohngen, B. (2009). “The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry”. Resource and Energy Economics, 31(4): 299-319.
Golub, A., Hertel, T.W., Taheripour, F. and Tyner, W.E. (2010). “Modeling biofuels policies in general equilibrium: Insights, pitfalls, and opportunities”. In Beladi, H. and. Choi, E.K. (Eds.): New Developments in Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for Trade Policy. Emerald Group Publishing, London: 153-187.
Gornall, J., Betts, R., Burke, E., Clark, R., Camp, J., Willett, K. and Wiltshire, A. (2010). “Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century”. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 365 (1554): 2973-89.
Gunasekera, D., Kim, Y., Tulloh, C. and Ford, M. (2007). “Climate change: Impacts on Australian agriculture”. Australian Commodities, 14(4): 657-76.
Hertel, T.W. (Ed.) (1997). Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York.
Hertel, T.W. (2010). “The global supply and demand for agricultural land in 2050: A perfect storm in the making?”. American Journal of Agricultural Economics (forthcoming).
Hertel, T.W. and Beckman, J. (2011). Commodity price volatility in the biofuel era: An examination of the linkage between energy and agricultural markets. NBER Working Paper No. 16824, Cambridge MA. https://doi.org/10.3386/w16824
Hertel, T.W., Burke, M.B. and Lobell, D.B. (2010). “The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030”. Global Environmental Change, 20(4): 577-85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.001
Hertel, T.W., Hummels, D., Ivanic, M. and Keeney, R. (2007). “How confident can we be in CGE-based assessments of free trade agreements?”. Economic Modelling, 24(4): 611-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2006.12.002
Hertel, T.W. and Rosch, S.D. (2010). “Climate change, agriculture, and poverty”. Applied Economic Policy and Perspectives, 32(3): 355-85. https://doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppq016
Kjellstrom, T., Kovats, R.S., Lloyd, S.J., Holt, T. and Tol, R.S.J. (2009). “The direct impact of climate change on regional labor productivity”. Archives of Environmental and Occupational Health, 64(4): 217-27. https://doi.org/10.1080/19338240903352776
Lobell, D.B., Banziger, M., Magorokosho, C. and Vivek, B. (2011). “Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials”. Nature Climate Change, 1: 42-45. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1043
Lobell, D.B. and Burke, M.B. (2008). “Why are agricultural impacts of climate change so uncertain? The importance of temperature relative to precipitation”. Environmental Research Letters, 3(3), July-September. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/3/3/034007
Martin, W. and Anderson, K. (2012). “Export restrictions and price insulation during commodity price booms”. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 94(1), January (forthcoming). https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aar105
Martin, W. and Mitra, D. (2001). “Productivity growth and convergence in agriculture and manufacturing”. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 49(2): 403-22. https://doi.org/10.1086/452509
Mattoo, A., Subramanian, A., van der Mensbrugghe, D. and He, J. (2009a). Can global de-carbonization inhibit developing country industrialization?. Policy Research Working Paper 5121, World Bank, Washington DC. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-5121
Mattoo, A., Subramanian, A., van der Mensbrugghe, D. and He, J. (2009b). Reconciling climate change and trade policy. Policy Research Working Paper 5123, World Bank, Washington DC. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-5123
Mendelsohn, R. (2009). “The impact of climate change on agriculture in developing countries”. Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research, 1(1): 5-19. https://doi.org/10.1080/19390450802495882
Narayanan, G.B. and Walmsley, T.W. (Eds.) (2008). Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 7 Data Base. Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, West Lafayette IN. Downloadable at www.gtap.org.
Nelson, G.C., Rosegrant, M.W., Palazzo, A., Gray, I., Ingersoll, C., Robertson, R., Tokgoz, S., Zhu, T., Sulser, T.B., Ringler, C., Msangi, S. and You, L. (2010). Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC.
Reilly, J., Palsev, S., Felzer, B., Wang, X., Kicklighter, D., Melillo, J., Preinn, R., Sarofim, M., Sokolov, A. and Wang, C. (2007). “Global economic effects of changes in crops, pasture, and forests due to changing climate, carbon dioxide, and ozone”. Energy Policy, 35(11): 5370-83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2006.01.040
Roson, R. and van der Mensbrugghe, D. (2010). Climate change and economic growth: Impacts and interactions. Mimeo, World Bank, Washington DC. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1594708
Scealy, R., Newth, D., Gunasekera, D. and Finnigan, J. (2011). “Potential effects of variation in agricultural sector responses to climate change: An integrated assessment”. Contributed paper for the Global Economic Analysis conference, Venice, 15-17 June.
Schultz, T.W. (1951). “The declining economic importance of agricultural land”. Economic Journal, 59(244): 725-40 https://doi.org/10.2307/2226977
Valenzuela, E. and Anderson, K. (2008). Alternative agricultural price distortions for CGE analysis of developing countries, 2004 and 1980-84. Research Memorandum No. 13, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, West Lafayette, December, at www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=2925.
Valenzuela, E. and Anderson, K. (2011). Projecting the world economy to 2050: Agriculture in the economy-wide GTAP model. Discussion Paper 1101, Centre for International Economic Studies, University of Adelaide.
Van der Mensbrugghe, D. and Roson, R. (2010). “Climate, trade and development”. Paper presented at the 13th Global Economic Analysis conference, Penang, 9-11 June.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
This journal is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License