Projections of economic impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe

Sonia Quiroga, Ana Iglesias


This study provides monetary estimates of the impacts of climate change in European agriculture. Future scenarios are derived from several socio-economic scenarios and experiments conducted using global climate models and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model across simulations based on crop productivity changes that consider no restrictions in the volume of water available for irrigation in current irrigated areas or in the application of nitrogen fertilizer. Thus the results should be considered optimistic from the production point and pessimistic from the environmental point of view. Regional differences between northern and southern European countries are found and the monetary estimates show that uncertainty derived from socio-economic scenarios has a larger effect than uncertainty derived from climate scenarios.


Agriculture; climate change; general equilibrium models

Subject classification

Q54, D58, Q11.

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