Proyecciones del impacto económico del cambio climático sobre la agricultura en Europa

Sonia Quiroga; Ana Iglesias

doi:10.7201/earn.2007.14.04

Authors

Sonia Quiroga Universidad de Alcalá
Ana Iglesias Universidad Politécnica de Madrid

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.7201/earn.2007.14.04

Keywords:

Agriculture, climate change, general equilibrium models

Abstract

This study provides monetary estimates of the impacts of climate change in European agriculture. Future scenarios are derived from several socio-economic scenarios and experiments conducted using global climate models and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model across simulations based on crop productivity changes that consider no restrictions in the volume of water available for irrigation in current irrigated areas or in the application of nitrogen fertilizer. Thus the results should be considered optimistic from the production point and pessimistic from the environmental point of view. Regional differences between northern and southern European countries are found and the monetary estimates show that uncertainty derived from socio-economic scenarios has a larger effect than uncertainty derived from climate scenarios.

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Author Biographies

Sonia Quiroga, Universidad de Alcalá

Dep. de Estadística, Estructura Económica y O.E.I.

Ana Iglesias, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid

Dep. de Economía Agraria y Ciencias Sociales

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