Projections of economic impacts of climate change in agriculture in Europe

Sonia Quiroga, Ana Iglesias

Abstract

This study provides monetary estimates of the impacts of climate change in European agriculture. Future scenarios are derived from several socio-economic scenarios and experiments conducted using global climate models and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model across simulations based on crop productivity changes that consider no restrictions in the volume of water available for irrigation in current irrigated areas or in the application of nitrogen fertilizer. Thus the results should be considered optimistic from the production point and pessimistic from the environmental point of view. Regional differences between northern and southern European countries are found and the monetary estimates show that uncertainty derived from socio-economic scenarios has a larger effect than uncertainty derived from climate scenarios.

Keywords

Agriculture; climate change; general equilibrium models

Subject classification

Q54, D58, Q11.

Full Text:

PDF

References

Alcamo, J., Doll P., Heinrichs T., Kaspar F., Lehner B., Rösch T. and Siebert S. (2003). «Global estimates of water withdrawals and availability under current and future business-asusual conditions». Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48:339-348. https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.48.3.339.45278

Antle, J.M. and Capalbo, S.M. (2001). «Econometric-Process models for integrated assessment of agricultural production systems». American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 83(2):389-401. https://doi.org/10.1111/0002-9092.00164

Arnell, N.W, Livermore, M.J.L., Kovats. S., Levy, P.E., Nicholls, R., Parry M.L. and Gaffin, S.R. (2004). «Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global scale climate change impact assessment: Characterising the SRES storylines». Global Environmental Change, 14:3-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.004

Arnell, N.W. (2004). «Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socioeconomic scenarios». Global Environmental Change, 14(1):31-52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.006

Bosello, F. and Zang, J. (2005). «Assessing climate change impacts: Agriculture». Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Working Paper, FEEM, Italy. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.771245

Burton, I. and Lim, B. (2005). «Achieving adequate adaptation in agriculture». Climatic Change, 70(1-2):191-200. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5942-z

Conrad, C. (2001). «Computable general equilibrium models in environmental and resource economics». Beiträge zur angewandten wirtschaftsforschung 601-01, Universität Mannheim, Mannheim.

Darwin, R. (2004). «Effects of greenhouse gas emissions on world agriculture, food consumption, and economic welfare». Climatic Change, 66:191-238. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000043138.67784.27

Dimaranan, B.V., McDougall, R.A. (2006). Guide to the GTAP Data Base. Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP6 Data Base. Dimaranan [ed.], Center for Global Trade Analysis. Purdue University.

Döll, P. (2002). «Impact of climate change and variability on irrigation requirements: A global perspective». Climate Change, 54:269-293. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1016124032231

Easterling, W.E., Chhetri, N. and Niu, X.Z. (2003). «Improving the realism of modelling agronomic adaptation to climate change: Simulating technological submission». Climatic Change, 60(1- 2):149-173. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1026023712494

EEA (2005). «Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Europe». EEA Technical Report, No. 7/2005:82 pp.

EEA (2007). «Climate change and water adaptation issues». EEA Technical Report No. 2/2007:110 pp.

European Commission (2007). «Adapting to climate change in Europe options for EU action». Green paper from the commission to the council, the european parliament, the european economic and social committee and the committe of the regions. Brussels.

Ewert, F., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Reginster, I., Metzger, M.J. and Leemans, R. (2005). «Future scenarios of European agricultural land use:. Estimating changes in crop productivity». Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 107:101-116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2004.12.003

Gleick, P.H. (2003). «Global freshwater resources: Soft-Path solutions for the 21st century». Science, 302:1524-1528. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1089967

Gregory, P.J., Ingram, J.S.I. and Brklacich, M. (2005). «Climate change and food security». Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 360:2139-2148. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1745

Grubb, M., Köhler, J. and Anderson D., (2002). «Induced technical change in energy and environmental modeling: Analytic approaches and policy implications». Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, 27:271-308. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.27.122001.083408

Hertel, T.W. (1997). Global Trade Analysis: Modelling and Applications, Cambridge University Press.

Iglesias, A. and Rosenzweig, C. (2002). «Climate and pest outbreaks». In: Pimentel, D (ed.) Encyclopedia of Pest Management, Marcel Dekker, New York, USA. https://doi.org/10.1201/NOE0824706326.ch53

Iglesias, A. and Quiroga, S. (2007). «Measuring cereal production risk form climate variability agross geographical areas in Spain». Climate Research, 34:47-57. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr034047

Iglesias, A., Rosenzweig, C. and Pereira, D. (2000). «Agricultural impacts of climate in Spain: developing tools for a spatial analysis». Global Environmental Change, 10:69-80. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(00)00010-8

Iglesias A., Garote, L., Flores, F. and Moneo, M. (2007b). «Challenges to manage the risk of water scarcity and climate change in the Mediterranean». Water Resources Management, 21:227-288. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-006-9111-6

Iglesias, A., Garrote, L. and Quiroga, S. (2007a). «Projection of impacts of climate change on agricultural crop production in Europe based on bottom-up analysis. PESETA project». Submited to Climate Change. In Internet: http://peseta.jrc.es/index.htm.

IPCC SRES. (2001). Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Intergovernmental Pannel on Climate Change. Available at: http://sres.ciesin.org).

IPCC. 2007. Climate Change (2007). Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511546013

Kaiser, H.M., Riha, S.J., Wilks, D.S., Rossiter, D.G. and Sampath, R. (1993). «A Farm-Level Analysis of Economic and Agronomic Impacts of Gradual Warming». American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 75:387-398. https://doi.org/10.2307/1242923

Kane, S., Reilly, J.M. and Tobey, J. (1992). «An empirical study of the economic effects of climate change on world agriculture». Climatic Change, 21:17-35. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00143251

Long, S., Ainsworth, E.A, Leakey, A.D.B., Nösberger, J., Ort, D.R. (2006). «Food for thought: Lower-Than-Expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations». Science, 312:1918-1921. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1114722

Maracchi, G., Sirotenko, O. and Bindi, M. (2004). «Impacts of present and future climate variability on agriculture and forestry in the temperate regions: Europe». Climatic Change, 70(1):117-135. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5939-7

Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A., Basist, A., Kurukulasuriya, P., Ajwad, M.I., Kogan, F. and Williams, C. (2004). «Cross-sectional Analyses of Climate Change Impacts». World Bank. Policy Research Working Paper 3350, Washington, DC.

Mendelsohn, R., Nordhaus, W., and Shaw, D. (1999). «The impact of climate variation on US agriculture». In: The Impacts of Climate Change on the U.S. Economy, R. Mendelsohn and J. Neumann (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK:55-93. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511573149.003

OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2003). Managing climate change risks. ENV/EPOC/GSP(2003)22/Final, Paris.

Olesen, J. and Bindi, M. (2002). «Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy». European Journal of Agronomy, 16:239-262. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00004-7

Parry, M.A., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M. y Fischer, G. (2004). «Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios ». Global Environmental Change, 14:53-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.008

Parry, M.L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A. and Fischer, G. (2001). «Millions at risk: Defining critical climate change threats and targets». Global Environmental Change, 11:181-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00011-5

Parry, M.L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Fischer, G. and Livermore, M. (1999). «Climate change and world food security: A new assessment». Global Environmental Change, 9:51-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00018-7

Porter, J.R. and Semenov, M.A. (2005). «Crop responses to climatic variation». Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 360:2021-2035. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1752

PRUDENCE (2006) (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects) http://prudence.dmi.dk/.

Reilly, J., Tubiello, F.N., McCarl, B., Abler, D., Darwin, R., Fuglie, K., Hollinger, S., Izaurralde, C., Jagtap, S., Jones, J., Mearns, L., Ojima, D., Paul, E., Paustian, E., Riha, S., Rosenberg, N., and Rosenzweig, C. (2003). «US agriculture and climate change: New results ». Climatic Change, 57(1):43-69. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022103315424

Rosenzweig, C., Tubiello, F.N., Goldberg, R., Mills, E. and Bloomfield, J. (2002). «Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change». Global Environmental Change, 12(3):197-202. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00008-0

Rounsevell, M.D.A., Reginster, I., Araujo, M.B., Carter, T.R., Dendoncker, N., Ewert, F., House, J.I., Kankaanpaa, S., Leemas, R., Metzger, M.J., Schmit, P., and Tuck, G. (2006). «A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe». Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment, 114:57-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2005.11.027

Rounsewell, M.D.A., Ewert, F., Reginster, I., Leemans, R. and Carter, T.R. (2005). «Future scenarios of European agricultural land use: II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland ». Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 107(2-3):117-135. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2004.12.002

Salinari, F., Giosue, S., Tubiello, F.N., Rettori, A., Rossi, V., Spanna, F., Rosenzweig, C., Gullino, M.L. (2006). «Downy mildew epidemics on grapevine under climate change». Global Ch. Biol., 12:1-9.

Schröter, D., Cramer, W., Leemans, R., Prentice, I.C., Araújo, M.B., Arnell, A.W., Bondeau, A., Bugmann, H., Carter, T., Gracia, C.A., de la Vega-Leinert, A.C., Erhard, M., Ewert, F., Glendining, M., House, J.I., Kankaanpää, S., Klein, R. J. T., Lavorel, S., Lindner, M., Metzger, M., Meyer, J., Mitchell, T. D., Reginster, I., Rounsevell, M., Sabate, S., Sitch, S., Smith, B., Smith, J., Smith, P., Sykes, M.T., Thonicke, K., Thuiller, W., Tuck, G., Zähle, S., Zierl, B., (2005). «Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe», Science, 310:1333-1337.

Stoate, C., Boatman, N.D., Borralho, R.J., Rio Carvalho, C., de Snoo, G.R. and Eden, P. (2001). «Ecological impacts of arable intensification in Europe». Journal of Environmental Management, 63:337-365. https://doi.org/10.1006/jema.2001.0473

Tsigas, M.E., Frisvold, G.B. and Kuhn, B. (1997). «Global climate change in agriculture». In: Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications. Thomas W. Hertel (ed.), Cambridge University Press.

Tubiello, F.N. and Ewert, F. (2002). «Simulating the effects of elevated CO2 on crops: Approaches and applications for climate change». European Journal of Agronomy, 18(1-2):57-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00097-7

Vorosmarty, C., Green, P., Salisbury, J. and Lammers, R.B. (2000). «Global water resources: Vulnerability from climate change and population growth». Science, 289:284-288. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.289.5477.284

Abstract Views

682
Metrics Loading ...

Metrics powered by PLOS ALM

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




 Universitat Politècnica de València

e-ISSN: 2174-7350   ISSN: 1578-0732   https://doi.org/10.4995/earn