Agricultural trade liberalisation in the Doha Round: impacts on Spain

George Philippidis

Spain

Centro de Investigación y Tecnología Agroalimentaria (Gobierno de Aragón)

CITA

Submitted: 2016-03-07

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Accepted:

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Published: 2011-10-19

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7201/earn.2005.10.03
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Keywords:

Doha Round, Spain, EU, CAP, Computable General Equilibrium

Supporting agencies:

The author would like to thank the Department of Environment

Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)

Government of the UK

for sponsoring this research.

Abstract:

Whilst there is a growing literature of computable general equilibrium (CGE) studies examining the impacts of the current Doha Proposals, estimates for the EU are highly aggregated (i.e., EU15). Employing a detailed baseline scenario and a plausible Doha outcome, we examine the long run costs for the European Union, in particular focusing on Spain. Moreover, we implement recent CAP reforms through explicit modelling of CAP mechanisms to provide greater credibility in assessing the long run asymmetric budgetary and welfare impacts on EU member states. The estimates forecast resource substitution effects between Spanish agro-food sectors and resource shifts from agro-food activities into manufacturing and services production. In Spain, the impacts of proposed Amber box reductions on fishing subsidies and the relatively smaller GDP contribution result in negative CAP budgetary impacts on regional income. In contrast, France, Germany and the UK all realise small real income gains.
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