Agricultural trade liberalisation in the Doha Round: impacts on Spain

George Philippidis


Whilst there is a growing literature of computable general equilibrium (CGE) studies examining the impacts of the current Doha Proposals, estimates for the EU are highly aggregated (i.e., EU15). Employing a detailed baseline scenario and a plausible Doha outcome, we examine the long run costs for the European Union, in particular focusing on Spain. Moreover, we implement recent CAP reforms through explicit modelling of CAP mechanisms to provide greater credibility in assessing the long run asymmetric budgetary and welfare impacts on EU member states. The estimates forecast resource substitution effects between Spanish agro-food sectors and resource shifts from agro-food activities into manufacturing and services production. In Spain, the impacts of proposed Amber box reductions on fishing subsidies and the relatively smaller GDP contribution result in negative CAP budgetary impacts on regional income. In contrast, France, Germany and the UK all realise small real income gains.


Doha Round; Spain; EU; CAP; Computable General Equilibrium

Subject classification

F1, F13, F17.

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