Canary Island tomato exports: A stable seasonal pattern?

Gloria Martín Rodríguez, Víctor Javier Cano Fernández, José Juan Cáceres Hernández


This paper studies the evolution of the weekly exports of Canary Island tomatoes after the entry of Spain in the European Union. A first analysis of deterministic components reveals their instability, clearly related to changes in the EU commercial regulations of access to European markets, and the presence of many outliers due to different reasons. These factors must be considered in the study of stochastic seasonality of the series. Furthermore, it is necessary to take into account the weekly frequency data and the existence of periods without exports in order to capture its behaviour and, in particular, the nature of its seasonal component.


tomato exports; seasonality; unit roots; structural time series models; outliers

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