The Ukrainian wheat market in the system of global food security: Wartime impact research
Submitted: 2024-09-28
|Accepted: 2025-05-20
|Published: 2026-06-26
Copyright (c) 2026 Olena Shandrivska, Nazar Fihun, Sylwia Nycz-Wojtan, Viktor Krykavskyy
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Downloads
Keywords:
Global wheat market, Ukrainian wheat industry, food security, war impact on agriculture
Supporting agencies:
Abstract:
The proposed study analyzes the transformation of the Ukrainian wheat market under the influence of hybrid and full-scale war during the period 2019–2024. Comparative analysis and market concentration indicators (Herfindahl-Hirschman, Linda, and Gini indices) allowed us to estimate the export volumes of wheat to global markets and, therefore, the impact of the war in Ukraine on global food security. The study's findings indicate that, despite the low market concentration, changes in the volumes and traditional logistical routes of Ukrainian grain exports have increased threats to global food security.
References:
Addis, Y., Tegegn, B. & Ketema, M. (2019). “Value chain analysis of wheat (Triticum aestivum): The case of Dembecha District, West Gojjam Zone, Ethiopia”. Ethiopian Journal of Crop Science, 7(1), 77-91. https://www.ajol.info/index.php/ejcs/article/view/237266
Afanasieva, O., Leonov, O. & Leonova, T. (2023). “Marketing strategic analysis of the agricultural industry of Ukraine during the war”. Mechanism of an Economic Regulation, 2(100), 23-28. https://doi.org/10.32782/mer.2023.100.04
Ahres, O., Markiv, H. & Tomashevskyi, Yu. (2023). “Credit support of agricultural enterprises in war conditions”. Bulletin of Lviv National Environmental University. Series “AIC Economics”, 30, 59-64. https://doi.org/10.31734/economics2023.30.059
Bentley, A.R., Donovan, J., Sonder, K., Baudron, F., Lewis, J.M., Voss, R., Rutsaert, P., Poole, N., Kamoun, S., Saunders, D.G.O., Hodson, D., Hughes, D.P., Negra, C., Ibba, M.I., Snapp, S., Sida, T.S., Jaleta, M., Tesfaye, K., Becker-Reshef, I. & Govaerts, B. (2022). “Near-to long-term measures to stabilize global wheat supplies and food security”. Nature Food, 3(7), 483-486. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00559-y
Bukvić, R.M., Pavlović, R.Z. & Gajić, A.M. (2014). “Possibilities of application of the Index Concentration of Linda in small economy: Example of Serbian food industries”. Annals of the Oradea University. Fascicle of Management and Technological Engineering, 23(13)(3), 159-164. https://doi.org/10.15660/AUOFMTE.2014-3.3071
CEE Bankwatch Network & Center for Environmental Initiatives Ecoaction. (2023). Agriculture: Priorities for sustainable investments to aid Ukraine’s recovery [Issue paper]. Retrieved from: Bankwatch. https://bankwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/2023_06_19_Agriculture_priorities-for-sustainable-investments-to-aid-Ukraines-recovery.pdf
EBRD. (2024). Projects overview (1991–2024). Retrieved from: European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. https://www.ebrd.com/content/dam/ebrd_dxp/assets/pdfs/publications/ebrd-investments-1991-2024.xlsx
Elevatorist.com. (2023). Experts reported on the cost of grain logistics. Retrieved from: Elevatorist.com. https://elevatorist.com/novosti/17039-eksperti-rozpovili-pro-vartist-zernovoyi-logistiki
FAO. (2022). CL 170/6 - Impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on global food security and related matters under the mandate of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Retrieved from: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://openknowledge.fao.org/handle/20.500.14283/nj164en
FAO. (2023a). Cereal supply and demand brief. World food situation. Retrieved from: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en
FAO. (2023b). Crop prospects and food situation: Quarterly global report 2. July 2023. Retrieved from: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc6806en
FAO. (2023c). Food price index. Retrieved from: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
FAO. (2023d). CL 172/5 -Global food security challenges and its drivers: Conflicts and wars in Ukraine and other countries, slowdowns and downturns, and climate change. Retrieved from: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://openknowledge.fao.org/handle/20.500.14283/nl652en
FAO. (2023e). Low-Income Food-Deficit Countries (LIFDCs): List updated June 2023. Retrieved from: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://www.fao.org/countryprofiles/lifdc/en/
Gini, C. (1912). Variabilità e mutabilità: Contributo allo studio delle distribuzioni e delle relazioni statistiche. Bologna: Tipografia di Paolo Cuppini.
Hamulczuk, M., Cherevyk, D., Makarchuk, O., Kuts, T. & Voliak, L. (2023). “Integration of Ukrainian grain markets with foreign markets during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine”. Problems of Agricultural Economics, 377(4), 1-25. https://doi.org/10.30858/zer/177396
Hellegers, P. (2022). “Food security vulnerability due to trade dependencies on Russia and Ukraine”. Food Security, 14(6), 1503-1510. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-022-01306-8
Hordiychuk, D. (2023). Grain is prohibited: How a boycott of European countries can harm Ukraine. Retrieved from: Project Weekly Chart. Economic Truth. https://www.epravda.com.ua/weeklycharts/2023/04/18/699228/
Horoshkova, L., Horoshkov, S. & Korniichuk, Y. (2024). “The development of Danube Ports amid war and post-war recovery of Ukraine”. Man and Environment. Issues of Neoecology, 41, 70-82. https://doi.org/10.26565/1992-4224-2024-41-05
Kolisnichenko, N. (2022). “A global food crisis fueled by the war in Ukraine: Governmental challenges”. Economics and Organization of Management, 2(46), 8-14. https://doi.org/10.31558/2307-2318.2022.2.1
Kushnir, S. & Anoshina, S. (2024). “The role of Ukraine in the formation of world food security”. Financial Strategies of Innovative Economic Development, 3(59), 99-103. https://doi.org/10.26661/2414-0287-2023-3-59-18
Kushnir, Yu., Blaha, M., Pop, M. & Pop, Yu. (2023). “Logistics and international trade of Ukraine during the war”. Scientific Bulletin of Uzhhorod University. The Economic Series, 1(61), 23-25. https://doi.org/10.24144/2409-6857.2023.1(61).23-25
Linda, R. (1976). Methodology of concentration analysis applied to the study of industries and markets. Brussels: OECD.
Métivier, J., Bacchetta, M., Bekkers, E. & Koopman, R. (2023). “International trade cooperation’s impact on the world economy”. Journal of Policy Modeling, 45(4), 713-744. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.007
Mottaleb, K.A., Kruseman, G. & Snapp, S.S. (2022). “Potential impacts of Ukraine-Russia armed conflict on global wheat food security: A quantitative exploration”. Global Food Security, 35, 100659. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100659
Neyter, R., Zorya, S. & Muliar, O. (2024). Agricultural war damages, losses, and needs. Retrieved from: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099062524074531514
OECD. (2023). OECD Economic Outlook, Interim report - March 2023: A fragile recovery. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/d14d49eb-en
Pobochenko, L., Tatarenko, N. & Prokopieva, A. (2023). “Current trends in the development of the world grain market in the conditions of war in Ukraine”. Economy and Society, 48. https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2023-48-29
Pohorielova, O. (2024). “State regulation of the agricultural sector of the economy in the context of providing the tasks of sustainable development”. Sustainable Development of Economy, 48, 129-143. https://doi.org/10.32782/2308-1988/2024-48-18
QDProffesional. (2023). Classification of goods (UKTZED). Retrieved from: QDPro. https://qdpro.com.ua/uk/catalogue/18000000
Rabbi, M.F., Ben Hassen, T., El Bilali, H., Raheem, D. & Raposo, A. (2023). “Food security challenges in Europe in the context of the prolonged Russian–Ukrainian conflict”. Sustainability, 15(6), 4745. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15064745
Rhoades, S.A. (1993). “The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index”. Federal Reserve Bulletin, 79(3), 188-189.
Rudyk, Y., Bubela, T. & Maciuk, K. (2023). “Russia-Ukraine war: Transport and logistics support for grain supply chain in regional food safety”. Scientific Journal of Silesian University of Technology. Series Transport, 119, 223-233. https://doi.org/10.20858/sjsutst.2023.119.13
Sen, A. (1973). On Economic Inequality. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198281935.001.0001
Sterie, C.M., Stoica, D.G., Giucă, A.D., Ursu, A. & Petre, L.I. (2022). “Import and export of wheat, sunflower and potato in the context of ensuring food security”. Scientific Papers Series Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development, 22(3), 705-712. https://managementjournal.usamv.ro/index.php/95-articles/vol-22-issue-3/2994-import-and-export-of-wheat-sunflower-and-potato-in-the-context-of-ensuring-food-security
Taru, V.B. & Lawal, H. (2012). “Concentration in the North Eastern Nigeria’s yam market: A Gini coefficient analysis”. Agroscience, 10(2), 49-57. https://doi.org/10.4314/as.v10i2.7
Teixeira da Silva, J.A., Koblianska, I. & Kucher, A. (2023). “Agricultural production in Ukraine: An insight into the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on local, regional and global food security”. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, Belgrade, 68(2), 121-140. https://doi.org/10.2298/JAS2302121T
Trading Economics. (2025a). Egypt food inflation. Retrieved from: Trading Economics. https://tradingeconomics.com/egypt/food-inflation
Trading Economics. (2025b). Laos food inflation. Retrieved from: Trading Economics. https://tradingeconomics.com/laos/food-inflation
Trading Economics. (2025c). Pakistan food inflation. Retrieved from: Trading Economics. https://tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/food-inflation
Trading Economics. (2025d). Somalia food inflation. Retrieved from: Trading Economics. https://tradingeconomics.com/somalia/food-inflation
Trading Economics. (2025e). Tunisia food inflation. Retrieved from: Trading Economics. https://tradingeconomics.com/tunisia/food-inflation
Ukav, I. (2017). “Market structures and concentration measuring techniques”. Asian Journal of Agricultural Extension, Economics & Sociology, 19(4), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.9734/AJAEES/2017/36066
Ukrainian Grain Association. (2023). Export of agricultural products via grain corridor. Retrieved from: Ukrainian Grain Association. https://uga.ua/en/results-of-the-grain-corridor-work
Wang, G., Li, S., Yi, Y., Wang, Y. & Shin, C. (2024). “Digital technology increases the sustainability of cross-border agro-food supply chains: A review”. Agriculture, 14(6), 900. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14060900
World Bank. (2022). HH Market Concentration Index by Country. Retrieved from: Word Integrated Trade Solution. https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/country/by-country/startyear/LTST/endyear/LTST/indicator/HH-MKT-CNCNTRTN-NDX
World Bank. (2023a). Global economic prospects, January 2023. Retrieved from: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099617212132336233
World Bank. (2023b). South Asia - Macro poverty outlook: Annual meetings 2023. Retrieved from: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099351210032318688
World Bank. (2024). Middle East and North Africa - Macro poverty outlook: Spring meetings 2024. Retrieved from: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099422104162428588
Zhang, Y.-T., Li, M.-Y. & Zhou, W.-X. (2024). “Impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international staple agrifood trade networks”. Foods, 13(13), 2134. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods13132134
