Vulnerability of the agriculture of Burundi to climate change: A review and linkages between climate change, food security, and food production
Submitted: 2024-07-19
|Accepted: 2025-01-08
|Published: 2025-12-19
Copyright (c) 2025 Jean Baptiste Aboyitungiye, Suryanto
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Downloads
Keywords:
Agricultural production, climate change, economic growth, food prices, food security
Supporting agencies:
Abstract:
Climate change critically affects food production, availability, and stability, particularly in regions that rely on subsistence agriculture. This study examines the relationship between climate variables and food security indicators in Burundi from 1990 to 2022 using a co-integration model within an Error Correction Model framework. Results reveal that precipitation positively influences food production annually but negatively in the long run. Food consumption, producer prices, and rural populations also exhibited long-run negative effects. The findings highlight the adverse impact of climate change on agricultural yields, emphasizing the need for strategies to enhance productivity, resilience, and sustainability among smallholder farmers.
References:
Affoh, R., Zheng, H., Dangui, K. & Dissani, B.M. (2022). “The impact of climate variability and change on Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Perspective from Panel Data Analysis”. Sustainability (Switzerland), 14(2), 759. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020759
Alhas Eroğlu, N., Bozoğlu, M., Başer, U. & Kiliç Topuz, B. (2020). “The causal relationship between temperature change and food indices in the world”. Turkish Journal of Forecasting, 04(1), 10-15. https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.660525
Bai, D., Ye, L., Yang, Z. & Wang, G. (2022). “RETRACTED: Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity: A combination of spatial Durbin model and entropy approaches”. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 16(4), 26-48. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-02-2022-0016
Belloumi, M. (2014). Investigating the impact of climate change on agricultural production in Eastern and Southern African Countries. AGRODEP Working Paper 0003. Retrieved from: UN Climate Technology Centre & Network. https://www.ctc-n.org/resources/investigating-impact-climate-change-agricultural-production-eastern-and-southern-african
Brown, P.T. & Saunders, H. (2020). “Approximate calculations of the net economic impact of global warming mitigation targets under heightened damage estimates”. PLOS ONE, 15(10), e0239520. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0239520
Chandio, A.A., Gokmenoglu, K.K. & Ahmad, F. (2021a). “Addressing the long- and short-run effects of climate change on major food crops production in Turkey”. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(37), 51657-51673. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14358-8
Chandio, A.A., Jiang, Y., Fatima, T., Ahmad, F., Ahmad, M., Li, J. (2021b). “Assessing the impacts of climate change on cereal production in Bangladesh: evidence from ARDL modeling approach”. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 14(2), 125-147. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2020-0111
Dampha, N.K., Manirambona, A., Ndayiragije, N.N., Nininahazwe, M.S., Raina, L., Tall, A. & Von Berg, M.R. (2022). Tackling Climate Change, Land Degradation and Fragility: Diagnosing Drivers of Climate and Environmental Fragility in Burundi’s Colline Landscapes - Towards a Multi-Sector Investment Plan to Scale up Climate Resilience. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099930006302237433
Dennig, F., Budolfson, M.B., Fleurbaey, M., Siebert, A. & Socolow, R.H. (2015). “Inequality, climate impacts on the future poor, and carbon prices”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112(52), 15827-15832. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1513967112
Dickey, D.A. & Fuller, W.A. (1979). “Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
Doğan, H.G., & Kan, A. (2019). “The effect of precipitation and temperature on wheat yield in Turkey: a panel FMOLS and panel VECM approach”. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 21(1), 447-460. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-018-0298-5
Febriandika, N.R. & Rahayu, C. (2021). “The impact of climate change on economic conditions: Evidence in Indonesia”. JEJAK: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan, 14(2), 261-271. https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v14i2.29920
Fukase, E. & Martin, W. (2020). “Economic growth, convergence, and world food demand and supply”. World Development, 132, 104954. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104954
Hsiang, S., Kopp, R., Jina, A., Rising, J., Delgado, M., Mohan, S., Rasmussen, D.J., Muir-Wood, R., Wilson, P., Oppenheimer, M., Larsen, K. & Houser, T. (2017). “Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States”. Science, 356(6345), 1362-1369. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal4369
Idumah, F.O., Mangodo, C., Ighodaro, U.B. & Owombo, P.T. (2016). “Climate change and food production in Nigeria: Implication for Food Security in Nigeria”. Journal of Agricultural Science, 8(2), 74-83. https://doi.org/10.5539/jas.v8n2p74
IPCC. (2023). “Section 4: Near-term responses in a changing climate”. In Core Writing Team, Lee, H. & Romero, J. (Eds.): Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report (pp. 91-116). Geneve: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647
IOM. (2022). Internal Displacement Dashboard. IOM Burundi. Retrieved from: International Organization for Migration. https://dtm.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1461/files/reports/DTM%20Burundi%20Dashboard%20-%20July%202022.pdf
Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990). “Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration - with applications to the demand for money”. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.1990.mp52002003.x
Kilicarslan, Z. & Dumrul, Y. (2017). “Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: Empirical evidence from the ARDL approach for Turkey”. Journal of Business, Economics and Finance, 6(4), 336-347. https://doi.org/10.17261/pressacademia.2017.766
Kumar, L., Chhogyel, N., Gopalakrishnan, T., Hasan, M.K., Jayasinghe, S.L., Kariyawasam, C.S., Kogo, B.K. & Ratnayake, S. (2021). “Climate change and future of agri-food production”. In Bhat, R. (Ed.): Future Foods: Global Trends, Opportunities, and Sustainability Challenges. London: Elsevier Inc. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-91001-9.00009-8
Lee, C.C., Zeng, M. & Luo, K. (2024). “How does climate change affect food security? Evidence from China”. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 104, 107324. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2023.107324
Li, Q., Sun, P., Li, B. & Mohiuddin, M. (2022). “Impact of climate change on rural poverty vulnerability from an income source perspective: A study based on CHIPS2013 and County-Level Temperature Data in China”. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 19(6), 3328. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19063328
MacKinnon, J.G., Haug, A.A. & Michelis, L. (1999). “Numerical distribution functions of likelihood ratio tests for cointegration”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 14(5), 563-577. https://www.jstor.org/stable/223206
Mahrous, W. (2019). “Climate change and food security in EAC region: A panel data analysis”. Review of Economics and Political Science, 4(4), 270-284. https://doi.org/10.1108/REPS-12-2018-0039
MINEAGRI. (2019). Third National Communication on Climate Change. Retrieved from: Ministry of the Environment, Agriculture and Livestock - Republic of Burundi. https://bi.chm-cbd.net/sites/bi/files/2021-06/tcncc_en.pdf
Nath, I. (2022). “Climate change, the food problem, and the challenge of adaptation through sectoral reallocation”. Conference paper presented during the 25th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, Virtual Conference. https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=6495
Ndayiragije, J.M. & Li, F. (2022). “Monitoring and analysis of drought characteristics based on climate change in Burundi using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index”. Water (Switzerland), 14(16), 2511. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14162511
Phillips, P.C.B. & Perron, P. (1988). “Testing for a unit root in time series regression”. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
Pickson, R.B., Boateng, E., Gui, P. & Chen, A. (2023). “The impacts of climatic conditions on cereal production: Implications for food security in Africa”. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 26, 18333-18360. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03391-x
Putri, R.F., Naufal, M., Nandini, M., Dwiputra, D.S., Wibirama, S. & Sumantyo, J.T.S. (2019). “The impact of population pressure on agricultural land towards food sufficiency (case in West Kalimantan Province, Indonesia)”. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 256(1), 012050. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/256/1/012050
Qi, Y., Zhang, Q., Hu, S., Wang, R., Wang, H., Zhang, K., Zhao, H., Ren, S., Yang, Y., Zhao, F., Chen, F. & Yang, Y. (2022). “Effects of high temperature and drought stresses on growth and yield of summer maize during grain filling in North China”. Agriculture (Switzerland), 12(11), 1948. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12111948
Rao, P. K. (2016). The economics of global climatic change. New York: Taylor & Francis. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315501499
Rask, K.J. & Rask, N. (2011). “Economic development and food production-consumption balance: A growing global challenge”. Food Policy, 36(2), 186-196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2010.11.015
Schneiderbauer, S., Baunach, D., Pedoth, L., Renner, K., Fritzsche, K., Bollin, C., Pregnolato, M., Zebisch, M., Liersch, S., López, M. del R.R. & Ruzima, S. (2020). “Spatial-explicit climate change vulnerability assessments based on impact chains. Findings from a case study in Burundi”. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(16), 6354. https://doi.org/10.3390/SU12166354
Sims, C.A. (1980). “Macroeconomics and reality”. Econometrica, 48(1), 1-48. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017
Traore, M. & Puscas, S. (2019). Climate change and migration in vulnerable countries. Retrieved from: International Organization for Migration & United Nations. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/09/climate-change-and-migration-in-vulnerable-countries/
Vermeulen, S., Aggarwal, P., Ainslie, A., Angelone, C., Campbell, B., Challinor, A., Hansen, J., Ingram, J., Jarvis, A., Kristjanson, P., Lau, C., Thornton, P. & Wollenberg, E. (2010). Agriculture, food security and climate change: Outlook for knowledge, tools and action. CCAFS Report No. 3. Retrieved from: Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security. http://ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/pdf/ccafs_report_3-low-res_final.pdf
Yuan, X., Li, S., Chen, J., Yu, H., Yang, T., Wang, C., Huang, S., Chen, H. & Ao, X. (2024). “Impacts of global climate change on agricultural production: A comprehensive review”. Agronomy, 14(7), 1360. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14071360
