How effective are VAT reforms in improving healthy dietary choices by EU consumers?

Beatrice Farkas

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7480-5125

Spain

European Commission image/svg+xml

Joint Research Center, Seville (Spain)

Ignacio Pérez-Domínguez

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0279-6263

Spain

European Commission image/svg+xml

Joint Research Center, Seville (Spain)

Simone Pieralli

Spain

European Commission image/svg+xml

Joint Research Center, Seville (Spain)

Christian Elleby

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2955-6438

Spain

European Commission image/svg+xml

Joint Research Center, Seville (Spain)

|

Accepted: 2024-05-09

|

Published: 2025-06-16

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7201/earn.2025.01.03
Funding Data

Downloads

Keywords:

diets, health leakage, agricultural commodity markets, modelling, VAT reform

Supporting agencies:

This research was not funded

Abstract:

Governments are increasingly considering fiscal instruments to improve dietary health. This paper quantifies the medium-term impacts on European food markets of a differentiated VAT policy that promotes healthy food consumption while discouraging intake of less nutritious products. Scenarios involve reduced VAT on grains, pulses, and poultry, and increased rates on beef, pork, sugar, and highfat dairy. Our results show a significant decline in domestic consumption of targeted foods. However, part of this reduction is exported to other markets – a phenomenon described as “health leakage,” raising questions about the broader effectiveness of such fiscal interventions.

Show more Show less

References:

Amaglobeli, D., Hanedar, E., Hee Hong, G. & Thévenot, C. (2022). Fiscal policy for mitigating the social impact of high energy and food prices. IMF Note 2022/001. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400211614.068

Bach, S. & Isaak, N. (2017). "Value-Added Tax cuts bring greatest relief to lower and middle income households". DIW Economic Bulletin, 7(31-32), 315-321. http://hdl.handle.net/10419/167694

Batini, N. (2021). The economics of sustainable food, smart policies for health and the planet. Washington, D.C.: Island Press and International Monetary Fund.

Beach, R.H., Sulser, T.B., Crimmins, A., Cenacchi, N., Cole, J., Fukagawa, N., Mason-D'Croz, D., Myers, S., Sarofim, M.C., Smith, M. & Ziska, L.H. (2019). "Combining the effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide on protein, iron, and zinc availability and projected climate change on global diets: a modelling study". The Lancet Planetary Health, 3(7), e307-e317. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(19)30094-4

Capéau, C., Decoster, A. & Güner, D. (2022). "Extension of the EUROMOD-ITT Tool", Final Report JRC Project no. JRC/SVQ/2020/OP/1373. Retrieved from: Andredecoster.be. http://www.andredecoster.be/publication/capeau-decoster-andguner-2022-extension-of-the-euromod-itt-tool/

Chouinard, H.H., Davis, D.E., LaFrance, J.T. & Perloff, J.M. (2007). "Fat taxes: Big money for small change". Forum for Health Economics & Policy, 10(2), 1-30. https://doi.org/10.2202/1558-9544.1071

Colchero, M.A., Molina, M. & Guerrero-López, C.M. (2017). "After Mexico implemented a tax, purchases of sugar-sweetened beverages decreased and water increased: Difference by place of residence, household composition, and income level". The Journal of Nutrition, 147(8), 1552-1557. https://doi.org/10.3945/jn.117.251892

Dogbe, W. & Gil. J.M. (2020). "Internalizing the public cost of obesity in Spain: Distributional effects on nutrient intake". Journal of Policy Modelling, 42(6), 1352-1371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.01.011

European Commission. (2022). "EU agricultural outlook for markets, income and environment, 2022-2032". Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2762/29222

European Commission. (2021). "VAT rates applied in the Member States of the European Union". Retrieved from: Taxation and Customs Union. https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2021-06/vat_rates_en.pdf

FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP & WHO. (2022). The state of food security and nutrition in the World 2022. Repurposing food and agricultural policies to make healthy diets more affordable. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc0639en

Fichera, E., Mora, T., Lopez-Valcarcel, B.G. & Roche, D. (2021). "How do consumers respond to "sin taxes"? New evidence from a tax on sugary drinks". Social Science & Medicine, 274, 1137992021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.113799

Fuest, C., Neumeier, F. & Stöhlker, D. (2021) The pass-through of temporary VAT rate cuts: Evidence from German supermarket retail. CESifo Working Paper No. 9149. Retrieved from: Cesifo. https://www.cesifo.org/en/publications/2021/working-paper/pass-through-temporary-vat-rate-cuts-evidence-germansupermarket https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3872388

Fuglie, K., Wiebe, K., Sulser, T.B., Cenacchi, N. & Willenbockel, D. (2022). "Multidimensional impacts from international agricultural research: Implications for research priorities". Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 6, 1031562. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2022.1031562

Grossman, M., Tekin E. & Wada, R. (2014). "Food prices and body fatness among youths". Economics & Human Biology, 12, 4-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2013.10.003

Hernandez-Aguado, R. & Lumbreras, B. (2018). "The impact of the tax on sweetened beverages: A systematic review". The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 108(3), 548-563. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajcn/nqy135

Himics, M., Giannakis, E., Kushta, J., Hristov, J., Sahoo, A. & Pérez-Domínguez, I. (2022). "Co-benefits of a flexitarian diet for air quality and human health in Europe". Ecological Economics, 191, 107232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107232

Jensen, J.D. & Smed, S. (2013). "The Danish tax on saturated fat - Short run effects on consumption, substitution patterns and consumer prices of fats". Food Policy, 42, 18-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.06.004

Nelson, G., Bogard, J., Lividini, K., Arsenault, J., Riley, M., Sulser, T.B., Mason-D'Croz, D., Power, B., Gustafson, D., Herrero, M., Wiebe, K., Cooper, K., Remans, R. & Rosegrant, M. (2018). "Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century". Nature Sustainabilty, 1, 773-781. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0192-z

Nordström, J. & Thunström, L. (2011) "Can targeted food taxes and subsidies improve the diet? Distributional effects among income groups". Food Policy, 36(2), 259-271. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2010.11.023

OECD & FAO. (2022). The Aglink-Cosimo model. A partial equilibrium model of world agricultural markets. Retrieved from: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook. https://www.agri-outlook.org/documents/2022_Aglink%20Cosimo%20Brochure.pdf

Pieralli, S., Chatzopoulos, T., Elleby, C. & Pérez-Domínguez, I. (2022). Documentation of the European Commission's EU module of the Aglink-Cosimo model: 2021 version. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. https://doi.org/10.2760/222318

Royo-Bordonada, M.Á., Fernández-Escobar, C., Gil-Bellosta, C.J. & Ordaz E. (2022). "Effect of excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Catalonia, Spain, three and a half years after its introduction". International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity, 19, 24. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12966-022-01262-8

Säll, S. & Gren, I-M. (2015). "Effects of an environmental tax on meat and dairy consumption in Sweden". Food Policy, 55, 41-53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.05.008

Sassi, F. (2023). A new economic model for better health. Retrieved from: Agencia Española de Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutrición - Ministerio de Consumo. https://www.aesan.gob.es/AECOSAN/docs/documentos/noticias/2023/D._Franco_Sassi.pdf

Scholle, L. (2022). "Mehrwertsteuer für Lebensmittel auf null senken". Wirtschaftsdienst, 102(6), 492-494. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10273-022-3221-5

Simon, D.R. (2013). Meatonomics: "How the rigged economics of meat and dairy make you consume too much and how to eat better, live longer, and spend smarter". San Francisco: Conari Press.

Springmann, M., Clark, M., Mason-D'Croz, D., Wiebe, K., Bodirsky, B.L., Lassaletta, L., de Vries, W., Vermeulen, S.J., Herrero, M., Carlson, K.M., Jonell, M., Troell, M., DeClerck, F., Gordon, L.J., Zurayk, R., Scarborough, P., Rayner, M., Loken, B., Fanzo, J., Godfray, H.C.J., Tilman, D., Rockström, J. & Willett, W. (2018). "Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits". Nature, 562, 519-525. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0594-0

Thow, A.M., Downs, S. & Jan, S. (2014). "A systematic review of the effectiveness of food taxes and subsidies to improve diets: Understanding the recent evidence". Nutrition Reviews, 72(9), 551-565. https://doi.org/10.1111/nure.12123

Tiffin, R. & Arnoult, M. (2011). "The public health impacts of a fat tax". European Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 65, 427-433. https://doi.org/10.1038/ejcn.2010.281

Tilman, D. & Clark, M. (2014). "Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health". Nature, 515, 518-522. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13959

Tukker, A., Bausch-Goldbohm, S., Verheijden, M., De Koning, A., Kleijn, R., Wolf, O. & Pérez-Domínguez, I. (2009). Environmental impacts of diet changes in the EU. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. https://doi.org/10.2791/88996

Wang, L., Zheng, Y., Buck, S., Dong, D. & Kaiser, H.M. (2021). "Grocery food taxes and U.S. County obesity and diabetes rates". Health Economics Review, 11, 5. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13561-021-00306-2

Weintraub, A. (2018). "Should we tax junk food to curb obesity?". Retrieved from: Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/arleneweintraub/2018/01/10/should-wetax-junk-foods-to-curb-obesity/

Willet, W., Rockström, J., Loken, B., Springmann, M., Lang, T., Vermeulen, S., Garnett, T., Tilman, D., DeClerck, F., Wood, A., Jonell, M., Clark, M., Gordon, L.J., Fanzo, J., Hawkes, C., Zurayk, R., Rivera, J.A., De Vries, W., Sibanda, L.M., Afshin, A., Chaudhary, A., Herrero, M., Agustina, R., Branca, F, Lartey, A., Fan, S., Crona, B., Fox, E., Bignet, V., Troell, M, Lindahl, T., Singh, S., Cornell, S.E., Reddy, K.S., Narain, S., Nishtar, S. & Murray, C.J.L. (2019). "Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT-Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems". The Lancet, 393(10170), 447-492. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31788-4

WHO. (2015). Fiscal policies for diet and the prevention of noncommunicable diseases. Retrieved from: World Health Organization. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241511247

Yusta-Boyo, M.J., Gutiérrez González, E., García-Solano, M., Rollán Gordo, A., Peña-Rey, I. & Rodríguez-Artalejo, F. (2023) "Reduction of sugar, salt and fat content in foods over the period 2016-2021 in Spain: the National Food Reformulation Plan". European Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 78, 149-154. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41430-023-01357-w

Show more Show less